UFC Paris Predictions and Odds: Full Fight Card Breakdown

4 September 2026

| BY Kim

The UFC Paris predictions and odds are drawing plenty of attention this week. The promotion is handing a UFC debut headliner slot to one of the most hyped prospects in years.

Salahdine Parnasse finally steps into the Octagon against battle-tested veteran Dan Hooker on Saturday, September 5, at the Accor Arena in Paris. Six fights make up the main card, running through five other matchups before the Hooker vs Parnasse main event closes the night.

This UFC Paris fight card breakdown covers every main card bout. We also share key stats behind each matchup and a full prediction for how the card plays out.

What Time Does UFC Fight Night Start on September 5?

This week’s UFC Fight Night in Paris opens with the prelims at 12 p.m. ET (9 a.m. PT), followed by the main card at 3 p.m. ET (12 p.m. PT).

What Is the UFC Paris Main Card Lineup?

Six fights make up the UFC Paris main card, headlined by Dan Hooker against Salahdine Parnasse in a lightweight main event. These UFC Paris predictions and odds cover every one of them below.

• Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse, Lightweight (main event)
• Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola, Lightweight
• Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev, Middleweight
• Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano, Welterweight
• Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima, Featherweight
• Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov, Featherweight

A late change hit the prelims too. Marion Santos pulled out of his featherweight bout against Nathaniel Wood after falling ill, and the promotion turned to unbeaten newcomer Pavel Andrusca as a short-notice fill-in.

Can Salahdine Parnasse Win His UFC Debut Against Dan Hooker?

Salahdine Parnasse enters as a heavy favourite for a fighter who has never taken a UFC walk, and his current form explains why. At 28, he has reeled off five consecutive wins, each one ending before the judges got involved. He defended the KSW lightweight title four times after already holding a belt at featherweight. His most recent finish came against Kenneth Cross in May, and his signature submission is the rear-naked choke.

Dan Hooker (24-14) is trying to snap a two-fight skid against elite competition. Arman Tsarukyan submitted him in the second round of a November 2025 headliner. Benoit Saint-Denis followed that up with a bloody second-round TKO in the UFC 325 co-main event. Hooker still carries knockout power and owns a height and reach edge over Parnasse. The five rounds are a long time for a debutant to survive against a durable veteran, let alone win.

Key stats

• Parnasse’s lightweight record remains spotless, and his last defeat came all the way back in December 2023.
• Hooker’s finishing resume, 11 knockouts and seven submissions across his career, means the danger of an early stoppage cuts both ways.
• No debutant has walked straight into a UFC main event like this since Kai Asakura got the call at UFC 310 in December 2024.

Who Wins the Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola Lightweight Clash?

Fares Ziam gives up only 1.58 significant strikes per minute, a defensive number no other active UFC lightweight can beat. He mixes sharp kickboxing with heavy elbows and fence wrestling on his best nights.

He is fighting in Paris for a third time and has won both previous appearances there. His last outing was a step back, though, a decision loss in which Tom Nolan outhustled him for two rounds.

Axel Sola has proven himself an all-action fighter across three UFC appearances, showing strength and aggression with a well-rounded skill set. The gap in overall polish still favours Ziam, provided the loss to Nolan sharpens his focus rather than lingers.

Does Michael Page’s Experience Beat Nursulton Ruziboev’s Power?

Michael Page is 39 years old and has not been scoring highlight-reel knockouts lately. However, he remains one of the hardest fighters in the sport to hit clean. His best win came against Jared Cannonier, and his range and footwork make him difficult for heavier hitters to close down.

Nursulton Ruziboev is a 6-foot-5 wrestler with 34 wins from 37 professional fights. 26 of those wins came in the opening round, and his opponents land on him less than any other fighter in the division.

His best win came against Dustin Stoltzfus. Page’s distance control and takedown defence should limit how often Ruziboev gets his hands on him, and once the pace slows past the opening rounds, Page’s cleaner striking tends to take over.

Can Punahele Soriano’s Wrestling Overwhelm Daniil Donchenko?

Punahele Soriano is unbeaten in four fights since moving up to welterweight. In his last outing, he set new UFC-wide marks for ground strikes landed and overall strike differential in a single fight. This is a run that includes a win over Uros Medic. His left hand and double-leg takedown work well together, and he has grown increasingly comfortable controlling opponents from top position.

Daniil Donchenko is unbeaten through three UFC fights, with his best win over Alex Morono. He is a crafty striker who attacks at every level. However, his takedown defence remains largely unproven against a wrestler with Soriano’s physicality, which is exactly the gap Soriano should look to exploit.

Is Felipe Lima the Safer Pick Over Morgan Charriere?

Morgan Charriere, a former Cage Warriors champion, fights best at range. He leans on heavy leg and body kicks along with sharp counters, and his best win came against Nate Landwehr. He lost his last bout, though, and his UFC victories have mostly come against lighter opposition.

Felipe Lima is heading back down to featherweight after a bantamweight move did not work out. Here, he brings a more well-rounded game built on combinations, kicks, and double-leg takedowns, and will win over Miles Johns.

Each man can compete in the other’s strongest area, but Lima’s higher work rate and takedown threat should be enough to keep him ahead on the scorecards.

Can Losene Keita Rebound Against Muhammad Naimov?

Losene Keita, a former Oktagon champion nicknamed The Black Panther, is the superior knockout artist in this featherweight matchup. He’s known for fluid combinations and heavy work to the body. His UFC debut ended in a close split decision loss, and his best win to date came against Predrag Bogdanovic.

Muhammad Naimov, known as Hillman, prefers low-volume fights that come down to a couple of well-timed takedowns, with a best win over Nathaniel Wood. Naimov lacks the elite footwork that troubled Keita in his debut. Keita’s superior striking should give him the platform to get his UFC run back on track.

What Else Is Worth Watching on the UFC Paris Prelims?

Modestas Bukauskas faces Oumar Sy in a light heavyweight prelim that carries more weight than the card position suggests. Bukauskas has slowed in recent outings, struggling to find his range and no longer showing the physicality that once defined his style. Sy, on the other hand, having dropped two of his previous three outings, should still have the physical tools to close distance and impose his wrestling.

The late change further down the card is worth tracking too. After defeating Daniel Pineda, Morgan Charriere, Jose Delgado, and Losene Keita via decision, Nathaniel Wood has won four straight fights.

He now meets undefeated replacement Pavel Andrusca, who arrives off a knockout win at UAE Warriors 72 in July. Short-notice debuts like this one tend to see the biggest early MMA betting swings and odds changes, so his form is worth following into fight week.

What Are Our UFC Paris Best Bets and Fight Predictions?

Every fight on the main card comes down to a clear stylistic edge once the records and recent form get lined up side by side. Here is the full UFC Paris predictions and odds breakdown for Saturday’s card.

At Betya, UFC odds will be updated if the card changes again before Saturday. For more on MMA fights and how to bet on them, check out our MMA betting basics guide.